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Expected Points (xP)

Overview

Expected Points (xP) is a metric that quantifies how many Fantasy Premier League points a player should have earned based on the quality of their underlying performances, similar to how Expected Goals (xG) measures goal-scoring opportunities.

Key principle: xP reflects the quality of chances and situations a player has been involved in, not their actual outcomes. It helps identify players who may be over-performing or under-performing relative to their underlying stats.

Philosophy

Just like Expected Goals (xG): - xP is retrospective, not predictive - It measures the quality of opportunities and situations - It uses underlying "expected" metrics (xG, xA, xGC) rather than actual outcomes - Differences between actual points and xP can indicate luck or finishing quality

Calculation

The xP calculation applies all official FPL scoring rules to expected and actual statistics:

Appearance Points

  • 1 point for every game played
  • +1 point for starts (60+ minutes)

Goals (Position-dependent)

  • Goalkeepers & Defenders: 6 points per expected goal
  • Midfielders: 5 points per expected goal
  • Forwards: 4 points per expected goal

Assists

  • All positions: 3 points per expected assist

Clean Sheets

Clean sheet probability is estimated from expected goals conceded (xGC) using the Poisson distribution:

  • Probability: e^(-xGC) (Poisson probability of zero goals)
  • Goalkeepers & Defenders: 4 points × probability
  • Midfielders: 1 point × probability
  • Forwards: 0 points

Example probabilities: - xGC = 0.5 → ~61% clean sheet chance → 2.4 points (GK/DEF) - xGC = 1.0 → ~37% clean sheet chance → 1.5 points (GK/DEF) - xGC = 2.0 → ~14% clean sheet chance → 0.5 points (GK/DEF)

Goals Conceded

  • Goalkeepers & Defenders: -0.5 points per expected goal conceded
  • Midfielders & Forwards: 0 points

Saves

  • Goalkeepers only: 1 point per 3 saves (actual saves)
  • Other positions: 0 points

Defensive Contributions

The FPL game awards bonus points for defensive actions (clearances, blocks, interceptions). The calculation differs by position:

  • Defenders: 2 points per 10 defensive contributions
  • Midfielders & Forwards: 2 points per 12 defensive contributions
  • Goalkeepers: 0 points (not included in this metric)

Penalties

  • Penalty saves: +5 points (actual)
  • Penalty misses: -2 points (actual)

Disciplinary

  • Yellow cards: -1 point (actual)
  • Red cards: -3 points (actual)
  • Own goals: -2 points (actual)

Bonus Points

  • Actual bonus points earned (no expected metric available)

Formula

xP = (
    games_played + starts
    + (6 × xG) for GK/DEF
    + (5 × xG) for MID
    + (4 × xG) for FWD
    + (3 × xA) for all
    + (4 × e^(-xGC)) for GK/DEF
    + (e^(-xGC)) for MID
    - (0.5 × xGC) for GK/DEF
    + (saves ÷ 3) for GK
    + (2 × defensive_contribution ÷ 10) for DEF
    + (2 × defensive_contribution ÷ 12) for MID/FWD
    + (5 × penalty_saves)
    - (2 × penalty_misses)
    - yellow_cards
    - (3 × red_cards)
    - (2 × own_goals)
    + bonus
)

Interpretation

xP > Actual Points

Player has been unlucky or finishing below expectation. They may be due for positive regression.

Example: A forward with 2.5 xG but only 1 actual goal has underperformed their xP.

xP < Actual Points

Player has been lucky or finishing above expectation. They may regress toward their xP.

Example: A midfielder scoring from two low-quality chances (0.5 combined xG) has overperformed their xP.

xP ≈ Actual Points

Player's output matches the quality of their chances - sustainable performance.

Per-90 Version

Expected Points per 90 (xP_90) normalizes the metric for playing time:

xP_90 = (xP ÷ minutes) × 90

This allows fair comparison between players with different amounts of playing time.

Limitations

  1. Bonus points use actual values (no expected bonus metric exists)
  2. Disciplinary actions use actual cards (difficult to model expected cards)
  3. Penalties, saves, own goals use actual values (rare events, small samples)
  4. Clean sheet estimation uses Poisson distribution (assumes goals follow Poisson process)
  5. Defensive contribution formula is specific to FPL's implementation

Use Cases

  • Identify players outperforming or underperforming their underlying stats
  • Find value picks who have been unlucky with returns
  • Compare players on underlying quality rather than actual outcomes
  • Analyze fixture difficulty impact on defensive stats (xGC)